Stainless steel seamless pipe is expected to rise in price

Stainless steel seamless pipe is expected to rise in price

After the Spring Festival, stainless steel seamless tube market ushered in a big reversal, and the run-up before the festival is very different. At the same time, futures board, a number of varieties in the first trading day after the festival (January 30) set a new high, ushered in a wave of falling prices.

Industry insiders said that the recent stainless steel seamless tube market on commodity demand less than expected concerns heating up, investment logic by "strong expectations" switch to "weak reality", expected correction triggered a collective price correction. Follow-up stainless steel seamless pipe price game focus is still the real estate and infrastructure construction between the reality and demand expectations.

Since November 2022, futures varieties picked up the ladder, a number of varieties in the first trading day after the Spring Festival hit a new high, and then "picture wind sudden change", ushered in a wave of falling market.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is basically stagnant, stainless steel seamless tube spot guidance role significantly weakened, futures plate more dominated by expected factors.

Since November 2022, real estate policies have provided conditions for market recovery from the supply side to the demand side. In the positive constantly increasing code, stainless steel seamless pipe downstream consumer demand bottoming out expected to rise, prices from the stage of low rapid rise.

However, after the Spring Festival, the focus of the price game changed. After the festival seamless stainless steel pipe supply stable, rapid accumulation of inventory, apparent consumption decline, light spot market trading, steel mills for raw materials to consume inventory, less procurement, so the price fell quickly.

Real estate and auto sales data remained weak during the Lunar New Year, while concerns about a weaker-than-expected demand recovery in the stainless steel seamless pipe market rose, and revisions to expectations triggered a correction in prices. In addition, the dollar phase stabilization also on the stainless steel seamless pipe price rise a certain pressure.

Stainless steel seamless pipe factory prices fall

With the recent decline in the market, steel mill profits continue to lose, some stainless steel seamless tube plant loss even more than 100 yuan.

Recent steel losses increase, production enthusiasm to decline. Stainless steel seamless pipe factory in the industrial chain profit distribution lack of discourse power. In addition, the relative strength of iron ore prices continues to squeeze ton-steel margins.

From the perspective of supply and demand, with the policy impact of crude steel reduction weakened, demand is still the key to the trend of black series varieties. In the short term, the futures board remains under pressure. In the medium term, due to the overall improvement of the supply and demand environment, stainless steel seamless tube price adjustment is still expected to strengthen, focusing on the peak season demand recovery.

The focus of the subsequent black commodity price game is whether the reality and expectations of real estate and infrastructure construction are consistent. As far as the current market is concerned, the upstream and downstream of the black chain usually needs 1 to 2 weeks after the Spring Festival to restore the normal rhythm of operation, and the follow-up needs to focus on the changes in the apparent consumption of stainless steel seamless tube and destocking. Seamless stainless steel prices in February are still expected to support, but rapid pull up the lack of strong momentum, may fall into a wide shock market.

From February to April, we need to pay attention to the demand and replenishment performance of black goods. With the resolution of time, market confidence is expected to be restored. With the gradual implementation of the broad credit policy, the dual rise pattern of supply and demand may gradually emerge in the second half of the year, and the interest rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve is expected to end in the middle of the year, when the price of black commodities may gain a repair rise. On the whole, the annual price or show 'N' type table is present, excess supply and demand is still a constraint on the annual price peak.

It is expected that the market supply and demand pattern of stainless steel seamless pipe in 2023 will be relatively balanced, gross profit per ton of steel is expected to improve marginal, steel price operation center will move up on the basis of the shock at the end of last year.